ACUS02 KWNS 040523
SWODY2
SPC AC 040521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday.

...Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes...
Northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly
eastward from the Canadian Prairies and adjacent northern High
Plains through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest on Saturday.
This shortwave is expected to mature as it progresses eastward, with
the resulting closed mid-level cyclone over northwestern Ontario by
early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will accompany this
system, moving eastward across the central portion of Canadian
Prairie Provinces and ending the period stacked beneath the
mid-level low over northwestern Ontario. Cold front attendant to
this surface low will push eastward across the northern and central
Plains through the Upper Midwest. By 12Z Sunday, this front will
likely extend from central Lower MI southwestward through central MO
before then turning more westward and extending along the OK/KS
border vicinity.

Warm-air advection will gradually increase within the warm sector
ahead of the front throughout the period. Low to mid-level
moistening from this warm-air advection coupled with cooling
mid-level temperatures will result in elevated buoyancy across the
Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes from Saturday evening into
Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within this
region as a result. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with the
shortwave trough will spread into the region during the evening as
well, supporting moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear.
However, the cloud-bearing layer shear values will be more modest
(i.e. around half of the bulk shear values), and the resulting
combination of modest buoyancy and shear will likely result in
predominantly sub-severe thunderstorms.

...Gulf Coast...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Gulf Coast and FL
Peninsula throughout the period as low-level easterlies persist
within a very moist airmass. Limited buoyancy and weak shear should
keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low.

..Mosier.. 10/04/2024

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