ACUS01 KWNS 031238
SWODY1
SPC AC 031236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a nearly zonal northern-stream pattern will
prevail either side of the Canadian border, from the Pacific Coast
across the Great Lakes to New England.  The main feature perturbing
that belt for this period will be a strongly positively tilted
trough, currently over south-central parts of SK/MB northwestward to
north-central AB.  This trough will amplify and pivot southeastward/
eastward across northern ON, northern MN and Lake Superior into
tonight.  By 12Z, the trailing part of this feature should be moving
across the western U.P of MI, northern WI and central MN.  A weak
shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern
OR and southwestern ID -- may reach the Quad Cities area of IA/IL by
12Z tomorrow and phase with the larger trough.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal wave low over
northwestern KS, with warm front eastward to west-central/
northwestern MO, and cold front across east-central CO.  The low
should migrate eastward through the period, reaching north-central/
northwestern MO by 12Z, with cold front trailing across southern KS,
western OK and the TX South Plains, and warm front extending to
east-central MO and southern IL.

...Mid/upper Mississippi Valley...
Capping and meager boundary-layer moisture will inhibit convective
potential today along/ahead of the front and low.  However, an area
of isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms is possible
overnight northeast of the low, supported by large-scale DCVA/lift
ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, and warm advection/
isentropic lift to LFC of increasingly moist parcels above the
surface.  Activity should be rooted in the 700-800-mb layer, amidst
MUCAPE roughly 500-800 J/kg, and around 35-40 kt effective-shear
magnitudes.  This may support small hail, especially early in the
convective cycle when cells are still at least somewhat discrete.
Modes should become messier and precip more expansive fairly
quickly, as inflow-layer moisture and MUCAPE only slowly increase in
the immediate upstream airmass to the southwest.  The overall severe
threat appears too limited and conditional for an outlook at this
time.

..Edwards/Dean.. 10/03/2024

$$
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