ACUS01 KWNS 021235
SWODY1
SPC AC 021233

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
The mid/upper-level pattern will be characterized by a belt of
gently difluent, west-northwesterly northern-stream flow from the
Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes.  This flow will weaken
considerably and become much more difluent over the Ohio Valley, mid
Mississippi Valley and Appalachians.  The strongest flow aloft will
be well-displaced from any substantial low-level moisture/theta-e,
which is expected to remain along and south of a quasistationary
front draped across north-central FL.

Scattered daytime thunderstorms are expected to form along FL East
and West Coast sea breezes, shifting inland as the boundaries
(including outflows from the first generation of convection nearer
the coasts) merge.  Weak deep-layer flow and lack of shear will
preclude organized severe potential.  Localized strong gusts are
possible in wet downbursts with enhanced lift along colliding
boundaries, 1500-2000 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE, and rich inflow-
layer moisture (surface dewpoints 70s F and PW commonly over 2
inches).  Elsewhere, very isolated/brief lightning may occur near
the AZ/NM border and Mogollon Rim, but with barely enough moisture
for convection, coverage is expected to be too small for a 10% area.

..Edwards/Dean.. 10/02/2024

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