FOUS30 KWBC 020757
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

There will be a lingering potential for convection near the
eastern coastline that could result in bursts of modest or very
local heavy rainfall intensities. The threat for excessive rainfall
and flooding concerns will remain below the 5 percent threshold for
this period.

Campbell/Hamrick


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

For a few days now there has been a signal for moderate to possibly locally
heavy rainfall to move northward from the Gulf of Mexico into far 
southeast portions of Louisiana and up near the Mississippi River 
delta. This is associated with moisture convergence along a quasi- 
stationary frontal boundary over the northern Gulf of Mexico. There
have been a fair amount of spread on where and how much will occur
and that has not resolved much for this round of guidance. In
general consensus keeps the highest QPF over the Gulf while a
couple of solutions suggest 2-3+ inches may reach the coastal water
and the wetlands. In coordination with the local forecast office 
in New Orleans the forecast QPF will likely not lead to any impacts
of significance for the wetland areas of southeast Louisiana
especially given their recent drier stretch. The Marginal Risk area
was removed for this period.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

As mentioned during the Day 2 period there has been a multi-day
pattern where the convection is just offshore the Gulf Coast but
within the convection there could be a few inches of isolated heavy
rainfall. The spread for this period favors a placement more over
the Gulf than the Gulf Coastline. There is a non zero potential for
localized moderate, possibly heavy rainfall intensities however 
nothing that is expected to become problematic at this time.

Campbell
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