FOUS30 KWBC 011241
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
841 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST
Virginia INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...Virginia/North Carolina...

During this period an area of low pressure will slide off the
Virginia and North Carolina coast while periods of heavy rainfall
persists from Richmond south and east through Hampton Roads and
portions of far northeastern North Carolina and the northern Outer
Banks. A majority of the rain is expected through about mid-
afternoon. Rain amounts and coverage with decrease as the low moves
further offshore. The inherited Marginal Risk was maintained albeit
with minor adjustments to reflect the latest model guidance and 
WPC forecast.

...Central Florida...

A disturbance moving along the stationary front over central
Florida may support more widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity from Tampa through Orlando to the Space Coast Tuesday
afternoon. Training of the convection and impacts with the urban
centers may result in isolated flash flooding. The inherited Marginal
Risk was maintained with a minor southward expansion.

Campbell/Wegman


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

There will be a lingering potential for convection near the
eastern coastline that could result in bursts of modest or very
local heavy rainfall intensities. The threat for excessive rainfall
and flooding concerns will remain below the 5 percent threshold for
this period.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

There is a non zero possibility for locally modest to heavy
rainfall to move northward from the Gulf of Mexico along the Gulf
Coast anywhere from the Mississippi River delta to west of the
Florida bend. There is a fair amount of model spread that further
serves to decrease confidence on where any of these storms may
occur. At this time a trends suggest that the bulk of the heaviest
rainfall will remain south of the coastline.

Campbell
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