FOUS30 KWBC 300809
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 30 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF 
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...

The latest guidance continues to show the south/southeast trend of
where the heaviest rain is expected to occur Monday across the 
Virginias. During this time the slow moving upper low will be transferring
its energy to a coastal low feature located offshore Virginia and
North Carolina. This will likely lead to a prolonged local  
enhancement in hourly rainfall rates near the Blue Ridge of 1 to 
1.5 inches/hour during this period. Soils near saturation from 
recent rains will keep the threat for flash flooding elevated for 
much of this region. A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall remains
in effect for extreme eastern West Virginia, northern/central 
Virginia, and north-central North Carolina. The Marginal Risk was 
extended to cover much of coastal North Carolina in association 
with the developing coastal low potentially locally increasing 
rainfall totals due to slow- moving convection especially on the 
western side of Pamlico Sound.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell
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