ACUS02 KWNS 050513
SWODY2
SPC AC 050512

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of central
California and the Great Basin into the Southern Rockies Thursday
into Thursday evening, but the risk for severe thunderstorms appears
neglible.

...Discussion...
The center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone is forecast to
progress across the lower Great Lakes into southwestern Quebec by
12Z Thursday, when a significant trailing cold front may be offshore
all the Atlantic Seaboard but perhaps eastern portions of New
England. It appears that the southwestern flank of this front will
be in the process of stalling and weakening across the western Gulf
Basin, and models indicate that the boundary layer may undergo
substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf toward the
lower Texas coast vicinity late Thursday through Thursday night.
This may be accompanied by weak inland boundary-layer moisture
return beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air across the
southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of
the Colorado Rockies.

Within and beneath a generally confluent mid-level regime to the
east of the Rockies, the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short
wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing advancing
inland of the Pacific coast, are likely to weaken while progressing
eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early
Friday.

Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent
short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern
California, and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday.

...Central California through southern Great Basin/Rockies...
A swath of stronger mid-level cooling overspreading the region in
association with the short wave developments is likely to contribute
to weak destabilization with daytime heating.  It appears that this
will become sufficient to support scattered weak afternoon and
evening thunderstorm activity, aided by areas of dynamic and
orographic forcing for ascent.

...Cape Cod vicinity...
Forecast soundings, perhaps most notably the NAM, suggest that lift
associated with frontal forcing and/or pre-frontal low-level warm
advection may still be contributing to elevated convective
development capable of producing lightning around 12Z Thursday,
before spreading away from the coast by mid/late morning.

..Kerr.. 03/05/2025

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