ACUS02 KWNS 040616
SWODY2
SPC AC 040614

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of
producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it
overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid
Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.

...Discussion...
The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still
appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into
southwestern Quebec during this period.  Associated strong
lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area
east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially
including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around
850 mb,  east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue
Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward
into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in
advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of
the Appalachians until Wednesday evening.

Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level
moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut
off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday.
However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the
Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast.

Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much
of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the
order of 500 J/kg or less.  However, given the strength of the wind
fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at
least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a
broad area.

...Southern Mid Atlantic...
It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the
eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for
substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina
Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain
Wednesday morning into afternoon.  Although forecast soundings
continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will
not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does
appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface
dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to
near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum
transport.  Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level
hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are
possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in
excess of 65 kt.

...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic...
Early period convective precipitation may contribute to
boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing
insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the
day.  Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model
forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic
profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective
instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.  Guidance
has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered
pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the
environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to
scattered organized convection, including supercells.

..Kerr.. 03/04/2025

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