ACUS02 KWNS 280553
SWODY2
SPC AC 280551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low in the Tennessee/mid Ohio Valleys will make
little progress eastward on Sunday. This low will be weakening and
in the process of becoming and open wave during the period. Ridging
aloft will be the main feature in the Southwest into the Midwest,
while a strong upper-level trough will be present in the
Northwest/northern Rockies. At the surface, the pattern will become
more disorganized beneath the upper low as that features weakens. A
front will remain along and just offshore of the eastern coastline.

Thunderstorms are possible from the Florida Peninsula into the
Carolinas and southern parts of Virginia. Some modest mid-level flow
enhancement will remain in parts of the Southeast and Carolinas. A
stronger storm or two could potentially develop in central/eastern
North Carolina as heating appears it could support around 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. However, weak lapse rates/warm temperatures aloft will keep
buoyancy generally limited and convection rather shallow. The
expected environment continues to suggest severe thunderstorm
potential is low. A few isolated lightning flashes may also occur in
central Utah as a weak upper-level shortwave moves into the Great
Basin. Coverage is expected to remain below 10%.

..Wendt.. 09/28/2024

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