ACUS01 KWNS 261256
SWODY1
SPC AC 261255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL
AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal
Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat
is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the
Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North
Carolina.

...Florida/Georgia and the Carolinas...
Hurricane Helene, centered 300-350 miles southwest of Tampa early
this morning, will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate
over the eastern/northeastern Gulf of Mexico today into tonight,
with landfall expected in the Florida Big Bend region this evening.
Consult National Hurricane Center forecasts and advisories for more
track, intensity, and impact details.

Related to Helene's large size and increasingly fast forward speed,
an associated increase of low-level flow/shear will occur across the
Florida Peninsula today, southeast Georgia and parts of South
Carolina by afternoon, and eventually into parts of North Carolina
tonight. Low-level shear (and moisture/buoyancy) is already
supportive of a tornado risk in some areas regionally, reference 12z
observed soundings from Miami and especially Tampa Bay. However,
this tornado-supportive scenario will diurnally increase and expand
north-northeastward regionally through the afternoon and evening.
Low-level hodographs will become quite large, with 0-1 km SRH
increasing into at least the 250-500 m2/s2 range. This will support
tornado potential with any low-topped supercells that are able to
develop and persist within Helene's rain bands. Some tornado
potential will reach into parts of North Carolina later tonight.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/26/2024

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