160
WTNT34 KNHC 251153
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
700 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 86.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Altamaha
Sound, Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* All of the Florida Keys
* The Florida west coast from Flamingo to Anclote River, including
Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line
* The Florida east coast from Flamingo northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Georgia and South Carolina coast north of Altamaha Sound to the
South Santee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 86.2 West. Helene is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  This motion
should continue through this morning, followed by a general
northward motion beginning later today and continuing through
Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on later today and Thursday, and
reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is
expected to become a hurricane later today.  The storm is forecast
to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a
major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.

Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals around 15
inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding.
Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern
Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Mexico during the next several hours, with tropical storm
conditions already ongoing. Hurricane conditions are expected within
the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday. Hurricane conditions
are possible for the western portion of Cuba later today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in Cuba
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in southern Florida later today and spreading northward
through Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area beginning Thursday and Thursday night.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of
the western Florida peninsula and southern Alabama.  The risk of
tornadoes will increase on Thursday, expanding across Florida and
into parts of Georgia and South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days.  Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast later today and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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