389
AXNT20 KNHC 240815
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Feb 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0815 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N11.5W to 01N32W. The ITCZ
extends from 01N32W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06S to 02N between 05W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb low pressure is centered near 27.5N90W, with a cold
front extending from the low to the central Bay of Campeche.
Strong to near gale force winds are E and N of the low, with seas
in the 6-8 ft range, Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds, and
moderate seas, prevail.

For the forecast, the low will track quickly E-SE across south-
central Florida tonight, with the trailing cold front moving into
the NW Caribbean this evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected
around the low pressure today, while moderate to fresh NW winds
are expected behind the front. Weak high pressure will settle over
the north- central waters Tue through Wed night leading to
tranquil marine conditions across the basin. Another cold front
will enter the NW Gulf Thu morning and sweep across the basin
through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, prevail over the south
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft,
prevail over the north central Caribbean as well as the eastern
Caribbean. Over the western Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds,
and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure across the W Atlc north of the
area will shift eastward today, resulting in a modest decrease in
trade winds across the basin. A cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean this evening, then reach from western Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras Tue morning with fresh NW winds behind it. The front
will stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by
early Wed. Fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia will diminish
gradually through Tue, then strengthen again toward the end of the
week. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail
elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle
of the week, as well as the Tropical N Atlantic. Winds will
briefly become fresh to locally strong across SE portions Tue
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from near 31N42W
southwestward to the Turks and Caicos Islands. gentle to moderate
winds are S of 27N W of the front. A 1023 mb high is centered near
30N66W, with light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the high
center. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in
the 7-19 ft range E if 57W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere except W of 75W
where seas are in the 3-4 ft range.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate today.
Rough seas N of the front will subside across the waters W of 55W
today. Elongated low pressure will move across south- central
Florida and the NW Bahamas tonight, then track NE and intensify
Tue, moving N of 31N by late Tue night. The low will drag a cold
front across the western part of the area. Strong to near gale-
force southerly winds and active convection will prevail ahead of
the front and low Tue through Wed morning. By late Wed night,
marine conditions will improve under a weak pressure pattern. The
next cold front is expected to move offshore the SE United States
Thu night.

$$
AL
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