ACUS02 KWNS 230704
SWODY2
SPC AC 230702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal
Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted trough will amplify as it moves from South Texas
to the Florida Peninsula on Monday. As this occurs, the surface low
already present over the Gulf will deepen somewhat during the day
and eventually advance east across the Panhandle and into the
western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Farther west, a strong mid-level
jet streak and associated strong surface low will approach the
Pacific Northwest coast with a cold front advancing inland on Monday
evening/Monday night.

...South Florida and the Florida Keys...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing across the eastern Gulf at the
beginning of the period with a some strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms ongoing across the open water. However, this MCS will
weaken as it moves east into lesser instability across and near the
Florida Peninsula. Some guidance, most notably the 00Z HRRR,
maintains greater instability across the Keys and far south Florida.
This could result in an isolated damaging wind gust or even a
localized tornado threat across south Florida. However, the majority
of guidance keeps instability well offshore with the strongest
storms even southwest of the Keys. If a greater instability solution
does occur across south Florida, a Marginal risk may be needed in
later outlooks, but the probability of that solution remains too low
for probabilities at this time.

...Northwest...
A very strong wind field will be present on Monday as a ~985 mb
surface low moves northeast off the coast. Therefore, some stronger
wind gusts may be possible with any convection in the region. Weak
instability depicted by forecast soundings in the area would
indicate a relatively low threat of convectively induced severe wind
gusts. However, some convective enhancement of already strong
synoptic flow may be possible, particularly along the coast.

..Bentley.. 02/23/2025

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