ACUS02 KWNS 220522
SWODY2
SPC AC 220520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks
into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday.

...Ozarks to KY/TN...

An upper shortwave trough from the Mid/Lower MO Valley to the
southern Plains vicinity will not progress eastward very much on
Monday. However, enhanced midlevel flow (around 40 kt at 500 mb)
associated with this feature will overspread the Ozarks to the Lower
OH and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop
south and east across southern MO and AR, becoming located near the
MS River by 12z Tuesday. Meanwhile a quasi-stationary surface
boundary will be oriented west to east near the OH River.

While a moist boundary layer will exist across the warm sector,
bounded by these surface fronts, considerable uncertainty remains in
the Day 2/Mon forecast. This uncertainty is largely driven by
widespread cloudiness and perhaps areas of ongoing precipitation
Monday morning, possibly resulting in stunted daytime
heating/destabilization. Additionally, given the less progressive
nature of the mid/upper trough, large-scale ascent may remain
somewhat nebulous/unfocused through peak heating. Nevertheless,
where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization occur across
the warm sector, strong to severe storms will be possible given
moderate vertical shear overspreading the moist boundary layer in
the presence of a surface boundary. Isolated damaging gusts and
sporadic hail will be the main hazards with this activity Monday
afternoon into the evening.

..Leitman.. 09/22/2024

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