FOUS30 KWBC 160811
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 16 2025 - 12Z Mon Feb 17 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

A line of showers and thunderstorms moving ahead of an deepening
low pressure center and its trailing cold front are forecast to
move from the central Appalachians through the Mid-Atlantic this
morning. These storms are expected to move steadily across the
region, producing a period of brief, but potentially heavy 
rainfall. While widespread additional heavy accumulations are not 
expected, recent precipitation, including that which has fallen 
over the past 24 hours, has saturated soils across portions of the 
region. 1-hr FFGs under a 0.25 inch in some areas suggest that even
brief heavy rainfall may exacerbate any ongoing flooding 
conditions. FFGs indicate that southern West Virginia into 
southwestern Virginia are especially susceptible.

Pereira


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 17 2025 - 12Z Tue Feb 18 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than five percent.

Pereira


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 18 2025 - 12Z Wed Feb 19 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

Strengthening southwesterly winds ahead an amplifying upper level
shortwave and an associated cold front are expected to draw deeper
moisture into parts of the Gulf Coast, with PWs climbing to around
1.5 inches. This moisture along with increasing lift and 
instability may be sufficient for heavy rainfall rates. Models 
also offer a modest signal for training storms ahead of a surface 
low that is forecast to develop and advance east along the coast 
Wednesday morning. This may help support localized heavy rainfall, 
with some potential for isolated flash flooding, especially in 
urbanized areas.

Pereira

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