558
WTNT33 KNHC 161156
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082024
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 78.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
32.7 North, longitude 78.2 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the northwest
or north-northwest is expected today and Tuesday, followed by a
gradual turn toward the north by Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and
then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the
coast, and the low still has a chance of becoming a tropical or
subtropical storm. Weakening is forecast after the system moves
inland, and it is likely to dissipate over the Carolinas by late
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. Doppler radar data and surface observations
indicate strong winds are nearing the coast and will spread onshore
during the next few hours. NOAA buoy 41013 at Frying Pan Shoals,
North Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76
km/h) and a gust of 56 mph (91 km/h). NOAA buoy 41037 offshore of
Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina recently reported a sustained
wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through late this afternoon or evening.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft
Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft
Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches
of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of
northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina today into
tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, are expected through
Tuesday. Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with
locally higher amounts, are expected tonight through Wednesday.
This rainfall could lead to a risk of flash and urban flooding and
minor river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes may occur through this evening
across the eastern Carolinas.

SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the
southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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