ACUS02 KWNS 150631
SWODY2
SPC AC 150630

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong wind gusts are possible on Sunday, mainly from late
morning through the afternoon, across portions of the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic.

...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic...

Convection will be ongoing Sunday morning ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front from the FL Panhandle to the western
Carolinas. This line of storms could produce strong gusts and
perhaps a tornado across the FL Panhandle/north FL into southern GA
where mid-60s F dewpoints are forecast amid strong vertical shear.
However, large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough shifting
east across the eastern U.S. will gradually become displaced to the
north with time. Nevertheless, isolated severe potential is expected
until the front moves offshore the GA coast by 21z.

Further north into the Carolinas and portions of Delmarva vicinity,
severe potential is somewhat more uncertain. Boundary-layer moisture
will remain more limited (upper 50s to low 60s F) and instability
will be quite weak due to poor lapse rates. However, strong
large-scale ascent, frontal forcing, and intense south/southwesterly
flow from around 925mb upward, will likely lend some support to
strong gusts, even with weak convection that may produce little
lightning. While poor thermodynamics may limit a more robust severe
thunderstorm scenario, will maintain a Marginal risk given intense
background flow fields. Severe thunderstorm potential should end by
21-00z as the cold front pushes offshore.

..Leitman.. 02/15/2025

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