ACUS02 KWNS 100630
SWODY2
SPC AC 100628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather
is not currently anticipated.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing is expected to evolve over much of the
West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into
the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the
surface, a cold front should extend from the southern High Plains
into central Texas before arcing northeastward along the upper Texas
Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley...
Precipitation is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Most of
this activity will be occurring on the cool side of the boundary.
This should reinforce the front, though some modest northward
progression of warmer, moist air may occur within the coastal plain
regions. Potential for surface-based storms south of the boundary in
southeast Texas/Sabine Valley vicinity appears low as the low-level
jet will weaken during the morning/afternoon and mid-level ascent
will be weak. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate poor lapse
rates in the column and warm layers that will inhibit updraft
intensity. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, additional
isolated to scattered storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau
into Central/Northeast Texas as mid-level forcing and 850 mb warm
advection increases. Again, these storms will be elevated on the
cool side of the boundary. The strongest of these storms could
produce small hail. The overall severe threat appears too
isolated/uncertain for unconditional probabilities.

..Wendt.. 02/10/2025

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