884 
AXNT20 KNHC 181057
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Feb 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to
move into the NW Gulf tonight. The front will sweep across the 
basin through Thu night. A trough will likely develop from its
remnants over the southwestern Gulf on Fri and linger through Sat
night while weakening. Near gale north winds with frequent gusts 
to gale force will follow the front over the NW Gulf Wed while 
gale force north winds will develop west of the front off 
Tampico, Mexico Wed and Wed night and off Veracruz, Mexico Wed 
night through Thu night. These winds will produce rough to very 
rough seas, peaking around 14 ft Wed night off Tampico. Winds and 
seas will diminish during the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Large, long-period NW 
swell behind a cold front is sustaining seas of 12 to 18 ft 
across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic, north of 16N
between 13W and 42W. This swell will subside very gradually while
shifting eastward toward the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands 
today. Reinforcing NW swell of 12 to 18 ft will follow by Wed 
over the waters north of 27N between 35W and 55W, then subside to 
12 to 15 ft as it moves east of 35W Fri.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 02N20W to 
00N34W. The ITCZ extends from 00N34W to 03S42W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05S to 03N between 13W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features about the Gale Warning over the
western Gulf.

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida and then  
weakens to the Bay of Campeche. A broad ridge extends from off 
the Carolinas towards the coast of Texas and across the southern
Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate E to SE winds over the 
western and southeast Gulf, and gentle NE winds in the northeast 
Gulf. Seas are slight to moderate basin-wide, highest over the SW waters.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate today. 
Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over the north-central Gulf
later today ahead of the next cold front forecast to move into 
the NW Gulf tonight and sweep across the basin through Thu night. 
A trough will likely develop from the front remnants over the 
southwestern Gulf on Fri and linger through Sat night while 
weakening. Near gale north winds with frequent gusts to gale force
will follow the front over the NW Gulf Wed while gale-force north
winds will develop west of the front off Tampico, Mexico Wed and 
Wed night and off Veracruz, Mexico Wed night through Thu night. 
Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds are expected through the period, 
becoming more confined to the waters north of 22N and west of 90W 
Fri through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to strong 
easterly trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, with
near-gale force winds off Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-10 
ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are 
occurring in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are present elsewhere.

For the forecast, mostly fresh trade winds and moderate seas are 
expected across the central, eastern and portions of the 
southwestern part of the basin through Sat night, except for 
strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas offshore of 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate winds 
along with slight to moderate seas will prevail in the 
northwestern Caribbean through Thu night. A cold front will sink 
into the Yucatan Channel and vicinity waters Thu night into Fri, 
reach the Windward Pasage Fri night into Sat before dissipating 
Sat night. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front 
N of the area will lead to the development of fresh to strong NE 
winds in the Lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage Fri evening 
through Sat night. Otherwise, rough seas in east swell will 
continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri night, subsiding afterward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the Significant Swell.

A cold front extends from 31N58W to Andros Island where it stalls
to the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of
the front N of 27N while rough seas to 9 ft are ongoing between
55W and 71W. The subtropical ridge is displaced southeastward 
ahead of the front, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure centered 
near 26N47W, and extending westward to 61W. Otherwise, in addition
to the large NW swell over the central and eastern subtropical
waters described in the Special Features section, combined seas 
of 4 to 8 ft are noted between 55W and 72W south of 22N primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will become fully 
stationary and weaken from 29N55W to 27N64W early Wed. Fresh SW 
winds ahead of the front north of 29N will diminish this morning 
as the front continues to move eastward. Fresh to strong southeast
winds will develop over the central and northeast Florida 
offshore waters Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to come 
off the coast Wed afternoon. This front will reach from near 
31N77W to Vero Beach, Florida Wed night, from near 31N63W to the 
southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba Thu night, from near 29N55W to 
the Windward Passage Fri night and begin to weaken as it reaches 
from near 26N55W to 22N64W to the Windward Passage Sat night. 
Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind this second 
front north of about 27N through Fri. Strong high pressure will 
build Sat and Sat night in the wake of the front. The resultant 
tight gradient will bring fresh to strong NE winds to the Straits 
of Florida and the Great Bahama Bank primarily south of 25N Fri 
night into Sat night.

$$
Ramos
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