ACUS11 KWNS 071748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071748 
OHZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-071915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0677
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

Areas affected...southern OH...eastern KY...and western WV

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 071748Z - 071915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado and locally damaging wind threat should
persist into late afternoon with the remnants of an earlier MCS that
may contain transient, weak supercell structures. Greater severe
threat is expected later into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Remnants of a largely decaying MCS/QLCS have persisted
across southwest OH into eastern KY, supported by downstream
boundary-layer heating with 17Z surface temperatures commonly in the
mid to upper 70s. Amid a modest combination of mid-level lapse rates
and deep-layer shear, convection has struggled to intensify as
MLCAPE has increased to 500-1500 J/kg. Nevertheless, moderate
low-level SRH (0-1 km of 100-150 m2/s2) should be adequate to
support transient, lower-end updraft rotation within embedded
updrafts that spread east amid the larger-scale decaying cluster. A
more favorable environment for supercells is anticipated this
evening in the wake of this afternoon convection.

..Grams/Smith.. 05/07/2024

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   39298401 39698344 39758287 39658210 39258175 38708171
            37828191 37418216 36968249 36578341 36588401 37228394
            39298401 

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