ACUS01 KWNS 120042
SWODY1
SPC AC 120040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE FRANCINE....

...SUMMARY...
Tornado threat continues with Hurricane Francine across the middle
Gulf Coast region.

...01z Update...

Center of Hurricane Francine has moved onshore and will continue
lifting slowly north through sunrise. Stronger, deeper updrafts are
currently located within the eastern hemisphere of the low, per
lightning data, along with a few longer-lived supercells. Have
adjusted severe probabilities down along the western portion of
Francine to reflect the latest position. Tornado threat continues
with stronger supercells.

High-level diffluent flow is noted across the northern Rockies this
evening ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that currently
extends across eastern WA/OR into NV. 500mb speed max will dig into
the base of the trough later tonight across the Great Basin which
will ensure the left-exit region of the jet will spread across
eastern ID/southern MT/western WY. Considerable amount of lightning
is currently noted with convection ahead of the short wave, and some
stronger wind gusts have also been observed. 00z sounding from Great
Falls, MT exhibited meager buoyancy, but steep lapse rates are
contributing to MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg across southern MT
into eastern ID/western WY. This continues to favor some risk for
locally severe winds with the more robust convection this evening.

..Darrow.. 09/12/2024

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