ACUS02 KWNS 130625
SWODY2
SPC AC 130623

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks
and Mid-South on Friday. Additional isolated storms are possible in
the southern Great Basin/Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is
not currently expected.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough will move eastward through the Great
Basin and reach the Southwest by early Saturday morning. At the
surface, a lee cyclone will develop in eastern Colorado and evolve
southeastward into the southern Plains. A cold front will move into
the southern Plains and extent northeastward into the Upper Midwest.
Moisture will begin to rapidly return Friday afternoon into the
lower Mississippi Valley and parts of East Texas.

...Sabine Valley/Ozarks/Mid-South...
As the upper trough approaches and warm advection intensifies during
the evening/overnight Friday, a few storms may develop from the
ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Additional storm development is likely to
occur later farther east in the Mid-South. The thermodynamic
environment is expected to limit severe potential in the Mid-South.
Within the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, current guidance suggests scattered
storms are probable. The environment here will have strong shear,
but will only have modest mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy. Given the
marginal thermodynamics in addition to storm interactions, the
coverage of marginally severe hail is expected to be quite limited.
Small hail appears more probable in the strongest storms. Farther
south, low-level moisture will be greater, but warm air aloft
currently appears that it will suppress any deep convection.

...Southern Great Basin/Four Corners...
Modest surface heating with 500 mb temperatures around -25 C will
promote isolated convection capable of sporadic lightning. Buoyancy
will be minimal and severe weather is not likely.

..Wendt.. 02/13/2025

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