ACUS02 KWNS 111713
SWODY2
SPC AC 111712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning
and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama.
Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across
the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the
northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong
mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the
primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo
extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast.

...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley...
Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for
low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the
Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with
upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the
morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late
morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon
hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some
dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and
evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida
Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning
hours.

By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing
of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some
surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg
possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may
overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists
across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few
tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late
afternoon period.

...Eastern Montana vicinity...
Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as
a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed,
relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold
front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front,
prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around
the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to
moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms.
Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal
airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few
bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts
and large hail.

..Bentley.. 09/11/2024

$$
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