ACUS01 KWNS 101942
SWODY1
SPC AC 101940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL/SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Marginal tornado potential may reach coastal areas of Louisiana
during the late overnight/early morning hours.

...20z Update...
The forecast remains on track and no changes are needed to the D1
Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more
information.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/10/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024/

...Southern Louisiana Late Tonight/Early Wednesday Morning...
The latest NHC forecast indicates Tropical Cyclone Francine will
move northeastward over the western Gulf of Mexico tonight through
early Wednesday morning. Morning surface observations show a stalled
front remains situated over the northern Gulf, with greater
low-level moisture (mid/upper 70s surface dewpoints) generally
confined near or just off the LA/MS/AL Gulf Coast. As Francine
approaches the LA Coast late tonight, this very moist low-level
airmass over the northern Gulf should gradually spread inland along
parts of the immediate central Gulf Coast, supporting weak
boundary-layer instability. As Francine approaches, a corresponding
increase in low-level flow and related effective SRH should support
some threat for tornadoes with any low-topped supercells in outer
rain bands to the east-northeast of the central circulation. Latest
guidance continues to suggest that the better tornado potential over
land will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 12Z). But,
an isolated/marginal tornado threat still remains apparent along
parts of the LA Coast for the last few hours of the Day 1 period
(08-12Z) early Wednesday morning, where a Marginal Risk has been
maintained.

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