ACUS02 KWNS 101720
SWODY2
SPC AC 101719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity
on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical
Cyclone Francine.

...Northern Gulf Coast...
Francine is forecast to become a hurricane over the northwest Gulf
of Mexico, with strengthening wind fields overspreading much of the
central Gulf Coast states from Wednesday afternoon into the night.
Preceding this system, a stationary front will exist roughly
parallel to the coast, with the more unstable/tropical moisture to
the south.

As southerly winds increase east of the cyclone center, this will
lift the front north as a warm front, with mid 70s F dewpoints
spreading north across southern MS, AL, and the western FL
Panhandle. Rapidly enlarging hodographs in the vicinity of the warm
front may support a zone of tornado potential as bands of cells push
northward off the Gulf of Mexico and arc northwestward. Tornado
potential on the north side will be limited by the more stable air
due to high pressure to the north.

...Parts of the Northwest/Northern Rockies...
A strong shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and
into the Great Basin, with substantial cooling aloft. A cold front
will generally stretch from a low over western MT across central ID
and into northern NV during the afternoon, with the strongest
heating ahead of the front across NV, UT and western WY. Post
frontal rain and a few thunderstorms are likely near the developing
cold front early in the day from northern ID into eastern OR, with
diurnal convection developing over southeast OR, southwest ID and
northern NV. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly strong given
that the primary speed max will dive southeastward across the
Sierra. However, cool temperatures aloft may yield small hail, with
scattered strong gusts with the larger clusters of storms.
Additional marginally severe storms may occur from western MT into
northwest WY near the deepening surface trough and aided by very
steep lapse rates supporting strong gusts.

..Jewell.. 09/10/2024

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