AT2k Design BBS Message Area
Casually read the BBS message area using an easy to use interface. Messages are categorized exactly like they are on the BBS. You may post new messages or reply to existing messages! You are not logged in. Login here for full access privileges. |
Previous Message | Next Message | Back to General Weather-related Discussi... <-- <--- | Return to Home Page |
|
||||||
From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
![]() |
Mike Powell | All | HVYSNOW: Probabilistic He |
February 3, 2025 9:03 AM * |
||
FOUS11 KWBC 030807 QPFHSD Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 307 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 03 2025 - 12Z Thu Feb 06 2025 ...Western U.S. across the Northern Rockies... Days 1-3... ...Atmospheric River (AR) and upper low maintain prolonged heavy snow from Oregon/California border and Sierra Nevada to the Northern Rockies through Wednesday... Current WV satellite imagery pinpoints our two distinct features that have been controlling the ambient weather pattern across the Western half of the CONUS. The first is an analyzed ULL centered over Vancouver island that has provided significantly lower heights across the PAC Northwest. The steady onshore component of the mean flow has provided waves of small mid-level perturbations to meander onshore with light precip in-of the Cascades of WA/OR. The main player in the ULL positioning is the aid it has provided for our second "player" within atmospheric schema; a progression of shortwave troughs moving ashore within a west to east aligned stationary boundary bisecting NorCal through the Northern Sierra, extending inland to as far east as the Absaroka and Wind River Ranges in western WY. Each shortwave pulse has aided in increased IVT advection with a highly anomalous (+5 to +8 deviations via NAEFS) transport of PAC moisture into the confines of the above locations and everywhere in-between (Northern NV thru ID). This direct moisture source has provided a steady ground for moderate to heavy snowfall within the higher terrain confined over the above locations with the upslope component within the Shasta/Siskiyou areas aiding in heavy snow totals >12" above 6500ft. This pattern will maintain general continuity given the prolonged structure of the AR wave train with some adjustment in the aligned flow likely to occur later this afternoon. A more amplified shortwave trough coupled with a southwestern retrograde of the ULL off the BC coast will provide a slightly more meridional component to the flow with a greater southwest-northeast alignment shifting heavier precip further south compared to the past 24-36 hrs. This will generate a better signal for heavy snow within the Northern Sierra with areas along I-80 getting into the greater potential for significant snowfall Monday night and beyond. The pattern evolution will manifest itself for a period of 24-36 hrs before the primary shortwave trough currently centered over the Pacific finally shunts eastward with a landfall timing centered around Tuesday night, kicking out of the area later Wednesday morning. This will lead to significant snowfall across the Northern and Central Sierra on Tuesday through that Wednesday morning time frame totals >12" highly likely within the latest snowfall probability fields for D1 and D2 (50-80%). Further inland, the pattern progression will provide some changes in the overall time frames of impact as the realignment of the mean flow will allow for the heavier snowfall encompassing portions of ID through western WY to scale back in intensity with more lingering light to moderate snowfall anticipated late Monday night through much of Tuesday. Current snowfall totals across the Absaroka and Wind River Ranges have been pretty significant since the beginning of the pattern evolution with the inland extension of the AR so any additional accumulation will still provide impacts, but will at least curb the heaviest precip threat to points further northwest. Conditions will deteriorate over Central ID into the Northwest Rockies in MT thanks to the flow alignment and shortwave perturbations advecting overhead. Probs for >8" over those areas will rise to 70-90% during the D2 time frame, a considerable adjustment compared to the previous periods. The aforementioned shortwave over the Pacific will move inland of CA with sights downstream over the Northern Rockies during the D3 time frame leading to a secondary pulse of heavier snowfall back across the interior with an emphasis on the Absaroka and Wind River Ranges once again. Associated upper-level speed max with the disturbance will nose inland with the Northern Rockies situated within the LER of a 125kt jet streak providing ample support for a better defined QPF maxima that will situate itself over the above areas. High probs are forecast for >8" (40-70%) on D3 likely bringing totals over the course of 5-days to 3 to 6' thanks to the onslaught of heavier precip and broad upslope flow within the interior ranges of the west. ...Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, & Northeast... Day 1... Persistent zonal flow regime will continue through D1 with an analyzed speed max over the Northern Plains this morning pushing eastward within the west to east aligned flow. Nose of the 25H jet will push through the Upper Midwest, eventually nosing into the northern Lower Peninsula of MI with a swath of snowfall breaking out just before the beginning of the period. As the jet core moves overhead, increasing ascent under the influence of the jet will generate a period of moderate to heavy snowfall as regional omega improves significantly within the 850-600mb layer as progged by recent bufr soundings in the zone of interest. A solid 3500' of favorable DGZ depth provides a sufficient layer for better crystal growth that will promote a better defined dendrite scheme during peak snowfall later this morning and afternoon before the setup wanes. The progressive nature of the event will limit the max potential below double-digits, however west-east aligned banding signatures within recent CAMs signal areas that could benefit from prolonged longitudinal banding with the storm motion also focused on a similar west to east alignment. Areas that can situate within persistent banding will likely experience rates ~1"/hr for several hours before the event fades as primary forcing shifts eastward into Ontario and eventually the Northeast U.S. Snowfall probs for >4" are forecast between 40-70% across the Door Peninsula of WI, extending east through the northern half of the Lower MI peninsula with a maxima focused downwind of Grand Traverse Bay, including the town of Gaylord. Further downstream over Upstate New York and New England, the same jet presence upstream over the Great Lakes will shift focus into the interior Northeast with increasing ascent generally aligned over areas downwind of Lake Ontario within the Tug Hill and Adirondacks, eventually encompassing Northern New England with the greatest impacts in-of the Green and White Mountains of VT/NH. The strongest signal for heavy snow is within the Adirondacks and adjacent North Country with probs for >4" upwards of 70-90% within those zones with 40-70% extending back towards the Tug Hill and points west near Pulaski and north along I-81. Snow levels across New England will be sufficient for snowfall above 1000', however greater impacts will be mainly relegated to zones above 2000' with a strong gradient in the snow probability fields for >4" with <20% in those lower elevations with a solid 50-80% within the highest elevations of the Green and White Mountains. Light ice accumulations will be found across areas of Northern PA and Western NY within a shallow moist layer present south of the main axis of lift, especially in the post-frontal regime that will transpire as the disturbance exits through Northern New England. Totals will be solidly <0.1" with a majority of the ice accretion likely relegated to a glaze to perhaps 0.01-0.05" at max. Day 3... Secondary disturbance(s) originating upstream across the Northern and Central Rockies will eject eastward within a very progressive upper flow evolution. Northern wave over WY/MT will progress east- northeast across the Northern Plains with snowfall breaking out downstream within a increasingly diffluent mid-level pattern. Light to moderate snow will transpire over Dakotas with the greatest impactful snowfall likely to occur over the Upper Midwest in MN, especially as the disturbance moves into the Arrowhead by the end of D3. Modest probabilities of >4" exist within northern MN and the Arrowhead with a swath of 40-60% located over Duluth and points northeast, as well as the northern most reaches of MN with the highest probs long the Canadian border. ...Midwest to Mid-Atlantic... Day 3... Second disturbance referenced in the section above will motion more west to east across the Plains into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic by the second half of D3. High pressure over the Great Lakes will shift eastward into the Northeast U.S by the beginning of D3 with cold air funneling south into the Mid Atlantic with guidance signaling a classic CAD wedge pattern initiating east of the Appalachian front. Limited blocking downstream over the North Atlantic will preclude any chance for the high pressure to hang on across the region with the continued eastward progression of the surface ridge eventually shifting off the Atlantic seaboard. Despite its positioning, time frame of interest for precipitation across the Ohio Valley and Northeast will be occurring after peak diurnal heating with wet bulb temperatures into the upper 20s and low 30s by the time precipitation breaks out across areas of IN/OH over into the Central Mid-Atlantic. Primary concern with the pattern is the low to mid-level WAA regime as the surface reflection encroaches from the west leading to a mixed ptype likely correlating to more icy (IP/ZR) hydrometeors compared to plain snow that we will see for points well to the north. Recent trends within deterministic have been for colder wedge to hang on more thoroughly for places east of the Apps with the highest ice probs located in- of the Laurel Highlands due to elevation factors leaning colder at precip onset, as well as a secondary ice maxima over the northern Ohio Valley where cold air will be able to hang on through much of the event given stronger WAA pattern displaced further downstream into the Mid-Atlantic comparatively. Ice probs of >0.1" are very high (80+%) across west-central PA with the focus in-of the Laurel Highlands where even some modest 20-40% probs for >0.25" of ice accretion are forecast as of the latest WWD progs. Northern Ohio Valley doesn't carry the probabilistic maxima for >0.25" like the mountains to the east, however >0.1" ice accretion is sufficiently within the 40-70% range, very much a non-trivial depiction that will have to be monitored closely. Lower probs exist within the Central Mid Atlantic east of the Blue Ridge, however a similar prob of 40-70% for >0.1" of ice exists for locations northwest of the fall line across MD extending into southern PA with lower, non-zero probs further east into the I-95 corridor and adjacent lowlands. Setup is delicate with multiple variables involved including depth of cold air, strength of LLJ providing WAA pattern, as well as timing of precip onset. These factors will determine the magnitude of ice potential in-of the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley with guidance starting to hone in on specifics as we move closer to the event. Kleebauer $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) |
||||||
|
Previous Message | Next Message | Back to General Weather-related Discussi... <-- <--- | Return to Home Page |
![]() Execution Time: 0.0147 seconds If you experience any problems with this website or need help, contact the webmaster. VADV-PHP Copyright © 2002-2025 Steve Winn, Aspect Technologies. All Rights Reserved. Virtual Advanced Copyright © 1995-1997 Roland De Graaf. |