206 
AXNT20 KNHC 081046
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Feb 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: 
Tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge centered near the
northwest Bahamas and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia 
will continue to support strong to near-gale force winds at the 
south- central Caribbean Sea through midweek next week. These 
winds are expected to peak at gale-force offshore of Barranquilla,
Colombia during the nighttime and early morning hours. Very rough
seas at 11 to 13 ft are anticipated under the strongest winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, then runs southwestward to 06N18W. An 
ITCZ farther south meanders southwestward from 03N20W to 00N38W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 100 nm along either 
side of the ITCZ west of 32W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1022 mb high
near the Big Bend Area of Florida to near Tampico, Mexico.
Moderate E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the 
southeastern Gulf, offshore waters of northern Yucatan Peninsula 
and the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds 
with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. No
convection is occurring in the basin, but patchy fog is
restricting visibility over coastal waters within about 90 nm of
the U.S. shore.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon and
evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula into late next week. 
Otherwise, high pressure will support gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas through the middle of next week, before a
cold front may move off the Texas coast by late next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Feature Section about a Gale Warning for
waters offshore Colombia.

A surface ridge extending southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N55W to near the northwest Bahamas is supporting
a trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Outside the Gale
Warning area, strong to near-gale ENE winds and seas of 8 to 11 
ft are seen in the central basin. Fresh ENE winds with 6 to 8 ft 
seas exist across the eastern basin and Windward Passage. 
Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail 
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are 
expected across the southwestern and central Caribbean through 
next week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the 
Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and downwind of 
Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will prevail across
the remainder of the basin. East swell will bring rough seas near
the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the 
eastern Caribbean Sea through late next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic
across 31N28W to 27N38W. Convection previously associated with 
this front has dissipated early this morning. The remaining 
convection in the basin is associated with the ITCZ and is 
described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above. Moderate to 
fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found behind the 
aforementioned cold front. Elsewhere N of 24N, mainly gentle E 
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate. To the S, fresh trades 
dominate with seas of 7 to 9 ft. 

For the forecast W of 55W, mainly fresh trade winds will prevail 
south of 25N into late next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail into the middle of next week next week. East 
swell will bring rough seas NE of the Leeward Islands and NE of 
Puerto Rico into late next week. 

$$
Konarik
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