ACUS02 KWNS 081641
SWODY2
SPC AC 081639

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the lower Great
Lakes, along the Gulf Coast, and from the Four Corners northward
into the northern Plains. Some storms may produce damaging wind
gusts over western into central New York.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while
weaker mid-level troughs, embedded in mainly zonal flow, traverse
the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Surface
high pressure will dominate the Midwest to Atlantic Seaboard while
surface troughing becomes established over the central and northern
Plains. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the backside
of the East Coast trough and provide adequate lift for at least
scattered thunderstorms over NY and immediate surrounding areas.
Meanwhile, strong surface heating and orographic lift will encourage
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development over the Great Basin
into the Four Corners region, with scattered thunderstorm
development also possible over the Northern Plains with the passage
of a mid-level trough. Finally, scattered thunderstorms may also
develop by afternoon peak heating amid a moist boundary layer along
the Gulf Coast into FL.

...Portions of New York...
A 500 mb speed max will rotate around the backside of the East Coast
trough by afternoon, when boundary-layer heating will support the
steepening of low-level lapse rates to about 7.5-8 C/km, resulting
in over 500 J/kg MLCAPE over central NY. While buoyancy will be weak
overall, the 500 mb speed max overspreading the region will result
in elongated mid/upper-level hodographs. As such, highly sheared and
low-topped multicell storms are expected to develop during the
afternoon. Some of the stronger storms may produce potentially
damaging wind gusts, necessitating the introduction of Category
1/Marginal risk probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 09/08/2024

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