ACUS01 KWNS 081225
SWODY1
SPC AC 081224

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Though a few strong thunderstorm gusts may be noted in the interior
Northwest and central High Plains, severe potential appears too low
and disorganized for an outlook area.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, the large-scale pattern will deamplify somewhat
over the CONUS this period, but maintain a mean trough in the Great
Lakes and eastern CONUS, and mean ridging over the Intermountain
West and Southwestern deserts.  A shortwave trough -- evident in
moisture-channel imagery over the interior of OR/WA into far
northern CA -- is forecast to continue weakening as it moves
northeastward, crossing the northern Rockies between 06-12Z.  Still,
associated cooling aloft and midlevel moisture, over pockets of
marginally favorable low-level moisture and diurnal surface heating,
will contribute to general thunderstorm potential in parts of the
interior Northwest and Intermountain West.  A few of these high-
based cells may produce strong gusts, but severe potential appears
to be limited by lack of greater moisture/buoyancy.

Farther east over the central Rockies and adjoining High Plains,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon into evening.  Activity should be related to diabatic
heating of elevated terrain, along with lift near a surface lee
trough, and a corridor of meager but sufficient low-level moisture.
Beneath strongly difluent but weak west to northwest flow in mid/
upper levels, bulk shear should be modest, despite considerable
veering with height.  Here too, a few cells may produce strong gusts
through a well-mixed subcloud layer, and a severe gust cannot be
ruled out.  However, severe potential appears too isolated, poorly
focused and conditional for a categorical risk area.  Elsewhere,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in a very moist
air mass (but with poor lapse rates) from parts of the Gulf Coast
States across FL and the southern Atlantic Coast.

..Edwards/Kerr.. 09/08/2024

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