ACUS01 KWNS 051243
SWODY1
SPC AC 051242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and
hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central
Colorado into northern/central New Mexico.

...Central/Southern Rockies into the Southern High Plains...
On the southwest fringe of large-scale upper troughing over Canada
and the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a mid-level shortwave trough
over the central Rockies this morning will move generally southward
across NM and vicinity through the day. Even though low-level
moisture remains fairly modest across the southern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains along/near of a cold front, cool mid-level
temperatures and somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft will likely
contribute to the development of around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE by
early afternoon as daytime heating occurs. Initial development of
robust convection by around 18-19Z will likely be tied to the higher
terrain as weak large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave
trough overspreads the south-central Rockies in a low-level
post-frontal regime. This activity should then spread generally
south-southeastward across parts of northern/central NM through the
late afternoon and into the evening. While low-level easterly flow
ahead of the front is forecast to remain weak, veering winds with
height through mid/upper levels should still support around 25-35 kt
of effective bulk shear and some updraft organization. The strongest
cores that can develop may be capable of producing severe hail.
Otherwise, the threat for isolated strong to severe wind gusts
should spread southward in tandem with any small clusters that can
form.

...Great Lakes/Midwest to the Central Plains...
Generally elevated convection is ongoing this morning across parts
of the Upper Midwest along and near a surface cold front, and ahead
of a large-scale upper trough moving generally southeastward.
Instability across this region is expected to remain weak (MUCAPE
500 J/kg or less), which should tend to limit the overall severe
threat. Still, some of the stronger cores could produce small hail
or gusty winds in the short term. Other thunderstorms may eventually
develop this afternoon along/near the front across parts of the
Midwest and/or central Plains. Regardless, the overall severe threat
across these regions currently appears too limited to introduce low
severe probabilities.

..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/05/2024

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