535 
AXNT20 KNHC 011033
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Feb 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Pulsing gale force winds are expected 
each night and morning offshore of Colombia through at least the 
middle of next week as a tight pressure gradient persists between 
ridging in the central Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern
Colombia. Very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft are anticipated with these winds.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and continues
to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 01N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of 05N 
between 40W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south 
of 08N between 10W and 40W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from northern Floria to the SW Gulf of 
Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the 
southeastern Bay of Campeche, west of a trough analyzed from 
23N87W to 19N91W. Strong to near-gale force winds are occurring 
behind the cold front offshore of Veracruz, where very rough seas 
are noted. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and moderate seas are
occurring elsewhere behind the frontal boundary and in the 
eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate SW winds and slight to moderate 
seas are present ahead of the front in the NE Gulf. Elsewhere in 
the Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slowly 
progress southeastward today before stalling and eventually 
dissipating this weekend. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds will 
occur behind this front this morning, and strong to near-gale 
force winds and very rough seas will occur offshore of Veracruz. 
Winds will diminish from north to south today. High pressure will 
build in the wake of the front, supporting gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf this afternoon 
through early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning
over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia.

A robust subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic continues to
dominate the Caribbean Sea. Outside of the south-central 
Caribbean, fresh to strong E trade winds prevail across the 
eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Moderate to rough seas are 
noted in these waters. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and 
moderate seas are noted south of 20N in the NW Caribbean, while 
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in
the rest of the area.

For the forecast, pulsing gale force winds are expected each 
night and morning offshore of Colombia as a tight pressure 
gradient persists between ridging in the central Atlantic and low 
pressure over northwestern Colombia. Very rough seas of 12 to 14 
ft are anticipated with these winds. Fresh trades will occur 
across the southwestern, central and eastern Caribbean through the
middle of next week, with winds pulsing to fresh speeds in the 
northwestern Caribbean by early next week. Pulsing strong winds 
are expected in the central Caribbean, as well as through the 
Windward Passage and downwind of Hispaniola. Rough seas will 
accompany the fresh winds in the southwestern and central 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, residual E swell will combine with new N 
swell this weekend, leading to locally rough seas near the 
Windward and Leeward Islands and through the passages into the 
Caribbean through next week. Otherwise, slight to moderate seas 
are expected in the northwestern Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N40W to 26N56W, then followed 
by a shear line to just north of Hispaniola. The rest of the SW 
North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence a strong 
subtropical ridge north of the area. The pressure gradient between
the aforementioned high pressure and lower pressures associated 
with a cold front moving off the southeastern coast of the United 
States is resulting in fresh to strong S winds and moderate to 
rough seas north of 28N and west of 70W. Fresh to locally strong E
to SE winds and moderate to rough seas are present in the 
remainder of the SW North Atlantic.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1033 mb high 
pressure system between the Azores and Madeira Islands. The tight 
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW 
Africa and deep tropics result in fresh to near gale-force N-NE 
winds south of a line from 31N22W to 25N55W and east of 55W. These
winds are sustaining rough to locally very rough seas, with the 
highest seas occurring north of the Cabo Verde Islands and between
the Canary Islands and Morocco. Moderate to fresh E winds and 
moderate to rough seas are evident south of 20N and between 50W 
and the Lesser Antilles. In the remainder of the basin, moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between high 
pressure in the central Atlantic and a cold front moving off the 
coast of the southeastern United States will support widespread 
fresh E to SE winds north of 22N early this morning. Strong S 
winds will be possible off the coast of Florida, north of 28.5N, 
this morning. The cold front will progress eastward today before 
eventually stalling and dissipating this weekend. Winds will 
diminish in the aforementioned areas by this afternoon as the 
pressure gradient relaxes between the cold front and the ridge. 
Elsewhere, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will prevail 
south of 22N through the middle of next week. North of 22N, gentle
to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected for Sun through 
early next week. 

$$
ADAMS
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)