ACUS02 KWNS 050553
SWODY2
SPC AC 050552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OHIO
INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Friday across much
of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs
southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on
Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time,
as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of
the trough by Friday evening. A cold front will move through parts
of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Midwest, and southern Plains.
Farther south, a weak surface wave may develop along a front near
the Gulf Coast and move northeastward along or just offshore of the
Carolina coast late Friday night into early Saturday morning. To the
west, an upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest,
while a shortwave trough begins to move inland across northern CA
into the Pacific Northwest.

...Ohio and adjacent parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the cold front Friday
afternoon across parts of Ohio and vicinity, as the amplifying
upper-level trough begins to impinge upon the region. Low-level
moisture will likely remain rather limited ahead of the front,
though relatively strong heating/mixing will steepen low-level lapse
rates. Somewhat more favorable moisture and buoyancy will reside
near and immediately behind the front, with MLCAPE potentially
approaching or exceeding 1000 J/kg.

Low-level flow will likely remain rather weak, but gradually
increasing effective shear (generally into the 25-35 kt range) could
support a few stronger storms capable of at least isolated damaging
winds during the afternoon and perhaps into the evening. Isolated
hail also cannot be ruled out with any stronger discrete cells.

...Gulf Coast to the Carolina Coast...
Some increase in low-level flow is possible in the vicinity of the
frontal wave that may develop near the Gulf Coast and move toward
the coastal Carolinas overnight. While this could be accompanied by
some increase in low-level shear/SRH, buoyancy is currently expected
to remain quite weak, so potential for organized convection inland
appears relatively uncertain/limited at this time.

..Dean.. 09/05/2024

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