ACUS01 KWNS 051253
SWODY1
SPC AC 051252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TENNESSEE
AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR SOUTHWEST WEST
VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe potential will be possible this
afternoon and evening from Tennessee and Kentucky into far southern
Ohio and far southwest West Virginia.

...Synopsis...
Early morning satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough entering
the central Plains, with another, more amplified shortwave trough
farther west across the Pacific Northwest. The lead shortwave is
forecast to progress eastward, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late
tonight and continuing through the OH Valley early tomorrow. Mass
response ahead of this wave will contribute to a broad area of
moisture return, with the airmass that is currently over east TX and
the Lower MS Valley advecting northeastward through the Mid South
and TN Valley throughout the day. A weak surface low will likely
develop over the Ozarks ahead of the approaching shortwave, before
then progressing quickly northeastward along the warm front and
ending the period near the OH/WV/KY border vicinity.

...Tennessee/Kentucky...
As mentioned in the synopsis, moderate low-level moisture is
expected to advect in the TN Valley throughout the day, with most
guidance bringing low 60s dewpoints into western and south-central
KY by early Thursday. Showers and occasional thunderstorms are
possible amid the broad warm-air advection expected throughout the
warm sector. Instability will be modest, tempered by widespread
cloud cover and poor lapse rates, which is expected to limit
thunderstorm strength and duration throughout much of the period.
However, large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as the
shortwave trough approaches the region, augmenting the ongoing
warm-air advection. This increased lift is expected to result in
increased convective coverage and intensity, with more persistent
updrafts likely. Strong vertical shear will be in place (i.e. 0-6 km
bulk shear around 50 kt), supporting the potential for organization
with any more persistent updrafts.

Primary threat will likely be hail as storms are generally expected
to stay elevated. A strong gust or two, and perhaps even a brief
tornado are possible from central KY into western/middle TN where a
few surface based storms could occur.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2025

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