AWUS01 KWNH 041108
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-041707-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0973
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2024

Areas affected...northeastern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041107Z - 041707Z

Summary...A few rounds of locally heavy rainfall are expected in
northeastern Florida near the Jacksonville Metro area.  Isolated
instances of flash flooding are possible through at least 17Z/1p
EDT today.

Discussion...Latest radar mosaic imagery depicts a band of
convection extending from near Jacksonville, FL east-northeastward
to open Gulf Stream waters near 31.3N, -79.6W. This band of
convection was collocated with a surface front very near the
region, with focused convergence, appreciable instability (1500
J/kg MLCAPE), and high PW/moisture content (2.3 inch PW)
supporting deep convection with appreciable rainfall rates. 
Steering flow aloft was weak, allowing cells to migrate slowly
west/west-southwestward amid 20-kt easterly 850mb flow.  This
regime was promoting slow movement and training of cells into the
Jacksonville Metro area, where MRMS and gauge estimates of 1-5
inch rainfall totals have been noted in a few spots over the past
12 hours.

The ongoing regime is expected to continue most of the day today,
with Gulf Stream convection migrating west-southwestward toward
northeastern Florida.  Given the rates and potential for
persistence of rainfall/multiple rounds of cells, a few spots of
3-5 inch rainfall totals cannot completely be ruled out through
17Z.  Some of this rainfall could occur over Jacksonville Metro
and pose at least localized issues with excessive runoff/flash
flooding.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30858155 30618094 30128066 29728067 29358096 
            29338181 29678273 30348265 30708214 
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