977 
AXNT20 KNHC 041054
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Feb 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-
central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale-force each night 
offshore of Colombia through the remainder of the week. Peak seas
with these winds are expected to be at or near 12 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to near 
05N16W. The ITCZ extends from 05N16W to 00N30W to 02N38W to 00N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 01N to 06N between 
10W and 24W, and from 05S to 05N between 22W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends basin-wide from a 1022 mb high 
pressure centered just south of the Florida Big Bend, which is 
supporting gentle to locally moderate winds across the basin.
Areas of locally moderate winds include the Yucatan Peninsula and
NW Cuba adjacent waters, and the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 
generally slight, except moderate over the Bay of Campeche. Middle
level divergence is supporting scattered showers across the 
central and SW Gulf. Otherwise, dense fog prevail across the
northern and SE Gulf offshore waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico 
this week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight 
to moderate seas across the basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
are forecast at night north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the 
Bay of Campeche as a surface trough develops over the Peninsula 
and moves westward towards Tampico and Veracruz diurnally. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
expected gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia.

Aside from the occurrence of gale-force winds off northwestern
Colombia, the gradient between strong high pressure north of the 
area and relatively lower pressure present in the southwestern 
Caribbean and in Colombia continues to allow for fresh to strong 
trade winds in the central, north-central and in the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage. 
These winds sustain moderate to rough seas in these waters. 
Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along with seas of 
mostly 4 to 6 ft are over the northwestern and eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, northeast strong trades will pulse to gale 
force each night with rough seas offshore of Colombia this week, 
supported by a tight pressure gradient between low pressure over 
NW Colombia and the Bermuda High. NE to E trades will be fresh to 
strong in the central Caribbean, through the Windward Passage, in 
the Gulf of Venezuela, and downwind of Hispaniola and Cuba. 
Otherwise, E swell will support locally rough seas near the 
Windward and Leeward Islands as well as the Atlantic passages into
the Caribbean before diminishing tonight. Large E swell will 
resume across the Leeward Islands offshore zones Thu into at least Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of the 
Bermuda-Azores High, which is supporting light to gentle winds and
moderate seas over the western and central waters N of 25N. Over
the eastern subtropical waters, a tighter pressure is leading to
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 11 ft,
strongest in the vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands. Moderate to
fresh trades and rough seas to 10 ft are elsewhere across the
tropical Atlantic waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High north of 
the region will promote generally moderate or weaker winds across 
the offshore waters for the next several days, except for fresh to
strong NE winds across the approach to the Windward Passage. 
Otherwise, rough seas in E swell should develop across the 
offshore waters east of 70W and south of 24N late Thu through at 
least Sat night. 

$$
Ramos
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