ACUS02 KWNS 040709
SWODY2
SPC AC 040708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to potentially severe storms may occur across
portions of the Mid South Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Within a background low-amplitude upper flow field, an embedded
short-wave trough is forecast to shift across the Plains and
into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley region with time.  As this
occurs, a weak surface frontal wave along the lingering west-to-east
baroclinic zone is expected to shift from the Oklahoma area during
the afternoon, across the Mid Mississippi and later the Ohio Valley
region.  Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Mid South
region and vicinity, in response, particularly during the latter
half of the period.

...Tennessee/Kentucky and vicinity...
Convection is forecast to gradually increase into the afternoon and
evening hours across the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee
Valleys, and eventually Ohio Valley, with a broad zone of warm
advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent ahead of the advancing
mid-level wave.

While weak lapse rates and only partially modified low-level air
will exist across the warm sector, shear will be favorable across
the region for updraft organization.  The lack of more substantial
CAPE is expected to largely temper severe-weather potential, but a
few stronger storms are expected, mainly from mid afternoon mid
evening.  Any vigorous/sustained updraft which can evolve, will be
capable of producing gusty winds -- perhaps reaching severe levels
locally.  A brief tornado or two could also occur, given shear
sufficient for both low- and mid-level updraft rotation.

..Goss.. 02/04/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)