AWUS01 KWNH 031228
FFGMPD
TXZ000-031826-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0968
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
827 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2024

Areas affected...much of Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031226Z - 031826Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are likely to continue through
at least the early afternoon hours (18Z/1p CDT).

Discussion...Much of Texas remains under the influence of broad
mid/upper difluence associated with a mid-leel wave over the
TransPecos.  Additionally, low-level convergence continues in the
vicinity of a surface front subjectively analyzed from near JCT
eastward through central Louisiana near ESF.  Across most of the
discussion area, the combination of 2+ inch PW values,
orographic/frontal confluence, weak inhibition, and at least 1000
J/kg MUCAPE was contributing to deep convection.  The strongest
updrafts were located across the southern 1/3rd of Texas where
instability was strongest.  Meanwhile, weak steering flow was
contributing to slow storm motions, and spots of 1-2.5 inch/hr
rain rates were occasionally observed - highest near deeper
convection across south Texas.

The ongoing scenario should continue to support scattered
instances of flash flooding throughout the day today.  Further
compounding potential runoff issues are antecedent rainfall, which
has totaled 2-8 inches over the past 24 hours across broad parts
of Texas Midland to Abilene and in more localized spots near Del
Rio and along the Texas Coast.  Areas of FFG exceedance are
expected throughout the day as deep convection lingers and
continues to result in spots of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates through
at least the early afternoon.  In the near term, the greatest
concern for flash flood potential resides near Del Rio (where deep
convection was resulting in near 3 inch/hr rates over FFGs between
0.25-1.5 inch/hr) and across a large part of west-central Texas
where lighter rainfall continues and FFGs are between 0-1 inch/hr.

Slight risk areas are valid for much of the discussion area in the
D1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, and expansions of that risk to
cover more of south Texas are anticipated at or before the 16Z
Outlook Update.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33479778 33139704 32479689 31509744 30749750 
            30089734 29389646 28849589 27909632 27439733 
            27539951 28650052 29840109 31620133 33060056 
            33359945 
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