ACUS02 KWNS 020603
SWODY2
SPC AC 020601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Mon Sep 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/a few severe storms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, and possibly marginal hail, are expected from the
northern Intermountain region eastward into the northern High
Plains, and southward into Utah.

...Synopsis...
As a large-scale upper trough continues to vacate the northeastern
U.S. Tuesday, a second/short-wave trough initially situated over the
Pacific Northwest will advance eastward across the northern
Intermountain region/Great Basin.

At the surface, a cold front will shift eastward across the
northwestern quarter of the country, in conjunction with the
advancing upper trough, while westerly flow aloft will maintain a
High-Plains lee trough.  Meanwhile, a remnant baroclinic zone will
linger from the southern Atlantic coastal area westward across the
Gulf Coast/northern Gulf of Mexico through the period, as a large
area of high pressure prevails north of the front, across the
central and eastern U.S., through the period.

...Montana to the western Dakotas, and southward to northwestern
Colorado and Utah...
As the upper system advances eastward across Idaho/western Montana
and the Great Basin during the afternoon, daytime heating/mixing
will eventually result in 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE atop a
deep/dry boundary layer.  This will support development of scattered
thunderstorms from western Montana/eastern Idaho southward across
Utah and adjacent portions of eastern Nevada.

The strongest storms are expected to evolve from southwestern
Montana south to northern Utah, where CAPE should be maximized ahead
of the trough, and a belt of 30 to 40 kt west-southwesterly
mid-level flow on the southeastern periphery of the upper trough
should reside.  Here, a couple of the strongest -- potentially
rotating -- storms will be capable of producing both strong/severe
outflow winds and possibly marginal hail.  Surrounding this area,
where instability and/or shear should remain a bit weaker, the
primary risk will be isolated strong wind gusts.

Through late afternoon and into the evening, convection -- and local
risk for strong/damaging winds -- will spread eastward toward/into
the High Plains, before weakening into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 09/02/2024

$$
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