ACUS02 KWNS 070606
SWODY2
SPC AC 070605

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Shallow convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
in portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Saturday. Severe
weather potential is low.

...Synopsis...
Low-amplitude upper-level ridging will develop in the wake of
departing trough across the Great Lakes into the Mid-South. Within
the central Plains, another shortwave trough is expected to
intensify as it progresses eastward into the Ohio
Valley/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. At the surface, the initial
stages of warm advection into the Tennessee Valley will take place
late Friday night and will continue through mid/late Saturday
afternoon. Modest moisture (mid/upper 50s F dewpoints) may reach as
far north as the Ohio Valley region. By Saturday evening, a strong
cold front will then push into Mid-South/Southeast into Sunday
morning. A modest surface cyclone will develop in response to the
secondary upper trough and progress along the surface boundary.

...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
Models continue to show variability in the strength of the surface
cyclone and, consequently, the degree of warm/moist advection into
the regions. Despite these differences, there is likely to be some
remnant, shallow cold air across Kentucky/Tennessee and adjacent
areas. Cloud cover will mute surface heating, but offsetting warm
advection should allow areas of low 60s F temperatures south of the
Ohio River. The thermodynamic environment is expected to be rather
weak. The general model consensus would suggest no more than 100
J/kg of MUCAPE is possible. The primary driver of convection will be
the cold front where shallow convective showers are probable.
Convective depth will be limited by lingering warm air aloft and
lightning production will be minimal to isolated. Even with these
limitations, 40-50 kts of flow at 850 mb could allow for isolated
stronger wind gusts within locally deeper convection. Given the
remaining uncertainties and expected sparse coverage of marginally
stronger activity, severe potential still appears low. Near and
north of the Ohio River, convection should remain elevated with
similar low/isolated potential for lightning.

..Wendt.. 02/07/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)