ACUS02 KWNS 310559
SWODY2
SPC AC 310558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging
winds will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic region to the central
and southern Appalachians, and possibly parts of New England on
Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough advancing initially across Ontario and the Upper
Great Lakes region will progress steadily eastward eastern Canada
and the northeastern U.S. through the period.  Upstream, ridging
will prevail over the West, though an eastern Pacific upper low will
approach the Oregon/northern California Coasts late in the period.

At the surface, an initial/weakening cold front lingering across New
England and the Atlantic Coast states during the first half of the
period will be gradually overtaken by a second/stronger front
shifting across the Great Lakes/Midwest early in the period.  By
Monday morning, the front will likely have reached/moved off the New
England and Mid-Atlantic Coasts, trailing southwestward across the
southeast and Gulf Coast regions.

...Parts of New England to the Mid-Atlantic region, and into the
central/southern Appalachians...
The remnant surface cold front -- gradually being overtaken by the
stronger/reinforcing front -- will serve as a focus for convective
activity Sunday.  As the upper trough steadily advances,
increasingly strong flow aloft will overspread the Northeast/New
England.  With that said however, substantial questions persist
across the Northeast -- particularly into New England -- given
likelihood for ongoing convection/cloud cover in the vicinity of the
initial/weakening front.  Thus, despite increasingly favorable
deep-layer shear that would otherwise support well-organized
convection, afternoon destabilization potential may be sufficiently
hampered so as to substantially limit severe potential.

Farther to the south -- across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region
and west-southwestward across the Appalachians, somewhat greater
destabilization potential is expected, but with weaker flow aloft as
compared to areas farther north.  Still, shear may prove sufficient
when combined with the anticipated/modest afternoon destabilization
to support stronger storms locally, and associated risk for gusty
outflow winds and local/minor wind damage during the afternoon and
early evening hours.

..Goss.. 08/31/2024

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