150 
AXNT20 KNHC 061049
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Feb 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-
central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale-force each night 
offshore of Colombia through early next week. Peak seas with 
these winds are expected to be at or near 12 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 02S37W. 
Scattered moderate convection and thunderstorms are ongoing from 
08S to 04N between 21W and 44W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging associated with a 1021 mb high pressure centered 
off Cedar Key, Florida near 29N83W extends basin-wide. A surface 
trough prevails over the eastern Bay of Campeche producing 
isolated showers, and supporting moderate winds. A tighter
pressure gradient over the SE Gulf is also supporting moderate E
to SE winds through the Florida Straits and the Yucatan Channel.
Seas across the basin are slight, except moderate over NW Cuba
adjacent waters. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will 
occur each afternoon and evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula
and through the Florida Straits as a surface trough develops over
the Yucatan Peninsula daily and moves westward towards Tampico 
and Veracruz. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the 
basin will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas through early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Feature Section for details on an ongoing Gale
Warning off the coast of Colombia. 

A broad subtropical ridge north of the area is supporting fresh
to strong NE to E winds across the central and southwest 
Caribbean, the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola, and the Windward 
Passage. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere along 
with moderate seas.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force each night and 
early morning offshore of Colombia as a strong pressure gradient 
prevails between high pressure over the western Atlantic and low 
pressure over northwestern Colombia. Locally rough seas will be 
possible near and to the west of the strongest winds. Fresh E to 
NE trade winds and rough seas are expected across the remainder 
southwestern and central Caribbean through early next week, with 
winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward Passage, in 
the Gulf of Venezuela, downwind of Hispaniola and in the lee of 
Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will occur across the 
remainder of the basin. East swell developing today will lead to 
rough seas near the Windward and Leeward Islands and their 
passages into the eastern Caribbean Sea through Mon night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging prevails over the western and eastern subtropical
Atlantic waters while the tail of a cold front continues to move
eastward over the central Atlantic. The front extends from 31N52W
to 27N61W. A surface trough is ahead of the front from 30N49W to
25N57W with isolated showers. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are
ongoing behind the front between 55W to 72W with mainly moderate
seas. Winds of same magnitude and direction are also ongoing over
the subtropical waters E of 30W where rough seas to 9 ft are
present. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are across the
tropical Atlantic with locally strong NE winds just west of the
Cape Verde Islands. Seas over the tropics are 8 to 9 ft.  

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh E trade winds 
will prevail south of 25N through Mon night. An increasing 
pressure gradient due to building high pressure in the western 
Atlantic will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of 25N and 
east of 70W through Fri morning. Winds will diminish in this 
region thereafter, with gentle to moderate winds continuing into 
early next week. Developing east swell will lead to rough seas NE 
of the Leeward Islands and NE of Puerto Rico this evening through Sun.

$$
Ramos
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