ACUS02 KWNS 300605
SWODY2
SPC AC 300603

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential -- mainly in the form of damaging gusts -- is
expected across portions of the northeast/central Appalachians and
into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Saturday.  A few strong/severe
gusts may also occur over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley
vicinity during the afternoon.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough moving across central Canada and the Great Lakes
region will amplify modestly as it progresses eastward through
Saturday night.  Meanwhile, large-scale upper ridging will continue
to prevail over the West.

At the surface, a weakening cold front will continue moving eastward
across the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Northeast and
Tennessee Valley area through Saturday afternoon and evening.
Meanwhile, a much stronger cold front is forecast to shift rapidly
southeastward/southward out of Canada across the Upper Great Lakes
and northern/central Plains through the period.

...Portions of the Northeast west-southwestward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys...
As a weakening cold front shifts southeastward into the
Northeast/across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon in tandem with
weak mid-level height falls, heating/destabilization will support
development of bands of thunderstorms across this region.  The
strongest flow aloft will remain across New York and into
Pennsylvania, with weaker flow southwestward along the front.
However, more substantial CAPE is expected farther south/southwest.
The best juxtaposition of favorable kinematics and ample instability
is forecast from portions of southeastern New York southwestward
into the West Virginia/Maryland/northern Virginia vicinity.  Here,
locally damaging winds and some hail will be possible --
particularly during the afternoon hours.  Lesser risk will extend
southwestward -- potentially as far west-southwest as the middle
Mississippi Valley area.

...Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity...
As a strong cold front advances south-southeastward across the
Northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes region ahead of a digging
mid-level short-wave through, weak/rather low-topped instability is
forecast to develop during the afternoon.  This will support widely
scattered thunderstorm development near the advancing front, within
a very favorably strong kinematic environment.  As such, fast-moving
storms will be capable of producing gusty/damaging winds locally,
before storms diminish after sunset.

..Goss.. 08/30/2024

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