ACUS02 KWNS 030703
SWODY2
SPC AC 030702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with
a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration
expected to prevail.  Within the broader flow field, a short-wave
trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and
the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains
to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across
the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over
the southern Plains.

Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the
period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases.  However,
not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this
time, prior to 05/12Z.  A few flashes may also occur across portions
of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave
feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating
any need for a thunder area.

..Goss.. 02/03/2025

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