ACUS02 KWNS 290554
SWODY2
SPC AC 290552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LAKE
HURON AND ERIE VICINITY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms will be possible from Lakes Huron and
Erie southwestward into the Midwest Friday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will continue moving slowly eastward out of
the north-central U.S. across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Friday,
with the more vigorous portion of the trough expected to eject
northeastward across western Ontario into the Hudson Bay region.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to continue eastward across
the Great Lakes, southeastward across the Midwest, and slowly
southward across the southern Plains.  By the end of the period, the
front should extend from the Lower Great Lakes west-southwestward
across the Ohio Valley, and into Oklahoma and northern Texas.

...Lower Michigan/northern Ohio/northwestern Pennsylvania across the
Midwest...
Moderate destabilization is expected in tandem with afternoon
heating ahead of the cold front, from Lower Michigan
west-southwestward across northern Illinois and Missouri, and
southward across the warm sector.  As the front slowly advances,
scattered thunderstorm development is expected, initially across the
lower Michigan and potentially into parts of Ohio, and then
expanding southwestward across Indiana, Illinois, and into Missouri.

Although the stronger deep-layer shear will largely remain to the
cool side of the front, modest westerly mid-level flow of 20-25 kts
will favor loosely organized storms, with some potential for upscale
growth/clustering.  Strong/isolated damaging gusts and perhaps
severe hail will be possible.  While risk should diminish after
dark, convection -- and very limited risk with a couple of stronger
storms -- may continue well into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 08/29/2024

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