219 
AXNT20 KNHC 021041
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Feb 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds will pulse to gale force each night
and early morning offshore of Colombia this week, supported by a 
strong pressure gradient between low pressure over northwestern 
Colombia and high pressure in the western Atlantic. Peak seas in 
excess of 12 ft are expected near and to the west of these winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to
03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N50W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N 
between Africa and NE South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from central Florida to
25N84W. Elsewhere, a surface trough has been analyzed from 22N98W
in eastern Mexico extending southeastward through the Bay of
Campeche. Moderate NE winds are noted in the region, and isolated
showers are occurring near the trough. Otherwise, a 1024 mb high 
is building over the north-central Gulf, supporting gentle to 
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico 
this week, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas across the basin. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning
over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia.

A 1007 mb low has been analyzed over northwestern Colombia, and
winds are pulsing to gale force just off the coast. Very rough
seas are occurring in tandem with these winds, with peak seas near
14 ft. Widespread moderate to fresh trades and rough seas are 
occurring across the southwestern through eastern basin, with 
strong winds noted in the central Caribbean including in the Gulf 
of Venezuela and downwind of Hispaniola, as well as through the 
Windward Passage. Moderate NE winds are noted in the northwestern 
basin, where moderate seas are occurring. 

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force each night and 
early morning offshore of Colombia this week, supported by a 
strong pressure gradient between low pressure over northwestern 
Colombia and high pressure in the western Atlantic. Peak seas in 
excess of 12 ft are expected near and to the west of these winds. 
Expect moderate to fresh trades and rough seas across the eastern,
central and southwestern Caribbean through the next week, with 
winds pulsing to strong speeds in the central Caribbean, through 
the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela and downwind of 
Hispaniola. Moderate NE winds will prevail in the northwestern 
Caribbean today before fresh to locally strong NE winds develop 
tonight, pulsing through this week. Mixed E and NE swell will 
support locally rough seas near the Windward and Leeward Islands 
as well as the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean through at least midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N66W to 29N74W, and a stationary
front continues southwestward into central Florida. No convection
is occurring near these fronts. The remainder of the SW North 
Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging, supporting moderate to 
fresh E trade winds south of 25N and west of 55W. However, strong 
E winds are found at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas 
are 8-11 ft in the areas described. Elsewhere west of 55W, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

The remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is under 
the influence of a 1033 mb high pressure centered near the 
Azores. The tight pressure gradient between this ridge and lower 
pressures in NW Africa and deep tropics result in fresh to strong 
NE to E winds south of a line from 31N22W to 25N55W and east of 
55W. These winds are sustaining rough to locally very rough 
seas, with the highest seas occurring north and west of the Cabo 
Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate to rough 
seas are evident south of 20N and between 55W and the Lesser 
Antilles. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will progress 
eastward and weaken over the northern waters this morning before 
dissipating later today. High pressure will build in the central 
Atlantic, supporting gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
north of 25N this week. South of 25N, fresh to locally strong 
trade winds and rough seas in E to NE swell will prevail. 

$$
ADAMS
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