ACUS02 KWNS 280606
SWODY2
SPC AC 280604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND INTO IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from portions of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few strong
storms also will be possible over portions of the Virginia and North
Carolina vicinity.

...Synopsis...
While weak upper short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast on
Thursday, a much stronger trough/low will continue to advance
into/across the north-central U.S. through the period.  At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to sag southward across the
Mid-Atlantic region in lee of the Appalachians, while a more
substantial cold front shifts eastward/southeastward across the
Plains through the period.

...Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley area to the central Plains...
As the upper low and associated trough extending southward across
the northern Plains gradually advances, eastward progression of the
associated cold front will result in afternoon storm development
from western Minnesota southwestward into Kansas.  While both
instability and shear are expected to diminish gradually with
southwestward extent along the front, 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer
CAPE is forecast by late afternoon from central Minnesota into far
northeastern Nebraska and Iowa, along with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to
45 kt range.  This will support vigorous storms, and attendant risks
for large hail and damaging wind gusts.  With time, linear/upscale
organization is expected to occur, with severe risk shifting across
the Upper Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley region through the
evening hours.  Lesser risk with southwestward extent should
gradually diminish after sunset.

...Virginia/North Carolina vicinity...
As weak mid-level short-wave troughing shifts across the Northeast,
a cold front back-dooring southward in lee of the Appalachians may
focus development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  Rather
weak northwesterly flow aloft, but moderate destabilization that is
expected to occur, will likely support a few multicell clusters,
along with attendant risks for marginal hail and minor wind damage.
Risk should remain confined to the afternoon and early evening
hours, diminishing in tandem with nocturnal stabilization.

..Goss.. 08/28/2024

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