ACUS02 KWNS 260607
SWODY2
SPC AC 260606

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Some severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes
region on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge centered over the Mid-MS/TN/OH Valleys will gradually
weaken with time, as a short-wave trough shifting east-northeastward
across the northern Plains gradually suppresses the ridging.
Meanwhile upstream, a strong upper low over southern British
Columbia early will advance eastward across southern portions of the
Canadian Rockies and adjacent northwestern U.S. through the period.

At the surface, an expansive cold front extending from Quebec
southwestward across the Upper Great Lakes to the central High
Plains will become increasingly west/east-oriented, as the
northeastern portion of the front shifts southeastward into New
England during the second half of the period, while the southwestern
segment remains more quasi-stationary -- or even retreats slightly
northward -- through the end of the period.  Meanwhile, a strong
cold front will advance eastward/southeastward across the
northwestern U.S. ahead of the progressive upper low.

...Great Lakes region...
Thunderstorms -- and some severe risk -- should be ongoing across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period.
Evolution of convection with time remains uncertain - in part due to
remnant influence of upper ridging across the region and associated
capping.  Some models suggest that ongoing convection weakens
through the day, with little afternoon redevelopment.  At this time,
the most likely scenario appears to be one or more clusters of
storms will continue moving eastward across the risk area through
the day, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and
hail.  By mid afternoon, redevelopment of storms may occur on
southern fringes of earlier convection, near remnant outflows.
Given likelihood for substantial destabilization, severe risk would
accompany any of these redeveloping storms.

Questions persist not only with degree of coverage of convection
through afternoon and evening, but both the southern, and eastern,
extent of severe potential.  Several models suggest storms
developing south and southwest of the SLGT risk area, where
favorable instability but much weaker shear is expected.  Meanwhile,
some models continue to depict overnight convection crossing the
Lower Great Lakes region, with ample instability/shear to support at
least low-end severe potential.  Additional adjustments to the MRGL
risk area in later outlooks will likely be required, as the
evolution of this scenario becomes a bit less uncertain.

..Goss.. 08/26/2024

$$
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