ACUS02 KWNS 280702
SWODY2
SPC AC 280700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/possibly severe storms will be possible across parts of
the southern Plains Wednesday evening/overnight.

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low over Arizona early Wednesday will move
eastward and then northeastward across the Southwest/southern
Rockies, with strong mid-level southwesterlies spreading into the
south-central U.S. ahead of this system.

At the surface, weak pressure falls across the southern Plains in
response to the approach of the upper system will lead to the
development of an inverted trough over central Texas through the
second half of the period.  A broad zone of low-level warm
advection/quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent will result in mainly
elevated convective development through the second half of the
period.

...Central Texas...
Low-level theta-e advection will increase through the day Wednesday
atop a cool surface-based airmass will result in gradual/weak
elevated destabilization.  As quasigeostrophic ascent likewise
increases with time, elevated showers -- and eventually, scattered
thunderstorms -- are expected, with most of the thunderstorm
activity to occur after dark.

While the greatest low-level moisture (limited to low 60s dewpoints)
will occur over eastern portions of central Texas (the Hill Country
region), truly surface-based convection appears a low-probability
occurrence.  Overall, expect convection to be elevated above a
persistently stable surface layer, with any wind risk or brief
tornado potential limited to eastern portions of the risk area.
Otherwise, a few storms capable of producing marginal hail are
expected, but overall risk should remain limited by modest CAPE.

..Goss.. 01/28/2025

$$
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