ACUS02 KWNS 230614
SWODY2
SPC AC 230613

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across the
Four Corners region eastward across the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to prevail over the Plains
Saturday, while a sharp trough advances slowly across the West.
Meanwhile, weak troughing will prevail over the Northeast.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Mississippi
Valley, while a remnant baroclinic zone extends from the northern
High Plains south-southeastward into the Kansas through most of the
period.

...Four Corners area east-northeastward across the central High
Plains...
As upper troughing moves slowly eastward across the Intermountain
West, modest destabilization across the Four Corners states will
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development.  Though
instability will remain weak, a belt of stronger mid-level flow on
the eastern periphery of the aforementioned trough will allow a few
stronger storms to evolve.  This, combined with dry sub-cloud layer,
suggests that locally damaging winds will be possible.

By late afternoon and into the evening, storm development is
forecast to increase across eastern Colorado and into the Nebraska
Panhandle region -- in the vicinity of the surface boundary.  While
flow aloft will be weaker across this area, the strongest storms may
produce damaging wind gusts and hail.  Risk should diminish through
late evening in tandem with nocturnal low-level stabilization.

..Goss.. 08/23/2024

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