ACUS02 KWNS 290702
SWODY2
SPC AC 290700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern
Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A closed upper low initially forecast to lie over the southeastern
Colorado area is expected to move steadily eastward Day 2/Thursday,
crossing Kansas/Oklahoma and eventually shifting into/across the
Ozarks through 31/12Z.

At the surface, a very weak surface low expected over northeastern
Texas Thursday morning is expected to shift north-northeastward with
time, with some deepening of the low expected through latter stages
of the period as it moves into the Illinois/Indiana area.
Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will sweep across eastern Texas
early in the period, across the Lower Mississippi Valley area
through the evening, and should lie from Indiana southward across
Kentucky and Tennessee, to the mouth of the Mississippi River by the
end of the period.

...East Texas to western Mississippi...
As the surface cold front shifts eastward through the day, southerly
low-level winds within the warm sector will advect partially
modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana.
Weak lapse rates will substantially hinder destabilization, but
low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak
surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front.

Elevated showers and storms should be ongoing at the start of the
period, moving across the eastern half of Texas.  As low-level
moistening allows storms to gradually become surface-based,
potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will
increase.  Risk should become maximized through the late afternoon
and early evening hours, expanding into/across Louisiana with time.
While the meager instability should temper the overall risk,
favorably strong low-level and deep-layer shear across the region
will exist, with low-level southerly flow increasing and veering
substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere.

 The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded
within small-scale linear segments, with convection spreading
eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening
before weakening overnight.

..Goss.. 01/29/2025

$$
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