FOUS30 KWBC 270750
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 27 2025 - 12Z Tue Jan 28 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TRANSVERSE/PENINSULAR RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

Light to moderate shower activity in association with a deep 
closed low looks to continue for a bit longer early this morning 
over portions of Southern California, gradually diminishing by 
midday as the low weakens and pivots inland and brings an end to 
the (now very low) potential for sub-hourly (15-min) rainfall 
rates of 0.25"+. Maintained the inherited Marginal risk for 
excessive rainfall for this very low-end potential, primarily due
to elevated concerns for any lingering shower activity over the
recent burn scars. This activity should largely come to an end by
18z, and the Marginal risk will likely be discontinued with an
update later this morning or afternoon. 

Churchill


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 28 2025 - 12Z Wed Jan 29 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Churchill/Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 29 2025 - 12Z Thu Jan 30 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

An upper level cutoff low ejecting out of the Southwest into the 
Plains will provide the forcing for ascent for a developing low 
over North Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night. Return flow of Gulf
moisture ahead of the low will advect north into Texas and 
Oklahoma along with increasing instability. The typical diurnal 
increase of the LLJ Wednesday night will greatly increase the 
coverage and intensity of storms along the developing low's cold 
front, while the warm front locally increases lift into Oklahoma. 
Since the upper level low will be slow-moving (though increasing in
forward speed with time), this will allow the storms that form to
train over the same areas. Soils in the area have been drier than
normal, meaning most of the rain will be beneficial, however where
storms train over more flood-sensitive areas and urban areas,
localized flash flooding is possible. Ensemble guidance have
increased in the areal coverage of at least 1 inch of rain, though
the pattern is much more favorable to narrow streaks of much
heavier totals where the storms track. Thus, confidence has
increased enough to introduce a Marginal Risk area.

The more significant flash flooding risk will be largely north and
east of the Day 3 Marginal Risk area going into D4/Thursday.

Wegman 
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